• Richard A. Chapman / Sun-Times Media
  • Republican Bruce Rauner addresses the congregation at New Beginnings Church of Chicago, whose pastor, Corey Brooks, has endorsed him.

The latest twist in the increasingly strange, ugly race for governor came over the weekend, when south-side minister Corey Brooks said he received death threats, and his church was burglarized, after he appeared in TV commercials for Republican Bruce Rauner.

Republicans don’t need to be reminded that they haven’t won an Illinois governor’s race in 16 years. That’s largely because they’ve been clobbered in the city, which typically accounts for a fifth of all the votes.

Altogether Cook County usually produces nearly 40 percent of all the votes statewide, and the Chicago area—including the surrounding collar counties—accounts for roughly two-thirds of the total vote. (You can see a detailed breakdown of past election vote totals here.)

“I don’t dislike Governor Quinn. I think he’s a good guy—I think he’s a great guy,” says Reverend James Meeks, a former independent state senator who’s supporting Rauner. “But if you keep beating a dog, eventually he’s going to do one of two things—he’s going to bite you or he’s going to run away. And that’s how I feel.”

Tellingly, he’s been trying to rally his party’s African-American base. A week before Rauner went to church with Brooks, President Obama swooped into town and headed straight to a Quinn rally at Chicago State University on the south side.

But as Obama’s appearance showed, Rauner has forced Quinn to play defense. That could help the Republican on the north side and the suburbs, where casting himself as a social moderate is far more likely to yield supporters.